PolybonsHow a book opens.
Polybons turns a post into a market. This page states the format the parser accepts, the fee on each lane, what Season 0 settles, and the parts that are not built yet.
Overview
Polybons is the first prediction market powered by Pons.family, running on Robinhood Chain, chain 4663, gas in ETH. The protocol token is $BONS.
A market starts as a post. Mention @polybons, write one question that ends in a question mark, add a close date. The parser reads the post and opens a book on the dashboard with the poster as creator. A book can also be opened here on the site.
Two kinds of book exist. A Yes / No book has two legs: Yes pays 1 if the question resolves yes, No pays 1 if it does not. A Percent book is a scalar from 0 to 100: an Over share pays resolution divided by 100, an Under share pays 100 minus resolution, divided by 100. Every new book opens at 50 / 50 and moves on the fills that follow.
Pricing runs on a logarithmic market scoring rule with a liquidity constant of 150. Price is always the market's own estimate of the claim, and the two legs always add to 1.
What is live
Nothing on this list is aspirational. Each line says where that part is today.
Posting a market
The format is one line. Mention, question, close date, and an optional category hashtag and coin address. Order does not matter. The question has to end with a question mark and stay at 140 characters or fewer.
Yes / No
Percent
A question that asks what percent opens a Percent book. Over pays resolution divided by 100, Under pays the rest.
With a coin address
A coin address pairs the book to a coin that already trades on Pons.family. It is optional and it does not change how the book prices.
What the parser says when it refuses
A post that cannot open a book comes back as one plain sentence. These are the sentences.
- The post is empty. Write a question that ends with a question mark.
- Add a question that ends with a question mark, for example: Will ETH close above 5,000 USD on 31 October 2026?
- The question is <count> characters. Keep it to 140 or fewer.
- Add a close date, for example: closes 2026-12-01
- That close date is not a real date. Use closes 2026-12-01.
- That close date has already passed. Pick a date in the future.
- The coin address must be 0x followed by 40 hex characters.
Categories come from a hashtag: politics, culture, sports, tech, crypto, finance, science, food. Without one the parser reads the question and falls back to Other. Close dates also accept a written month, such as closes 1 December.
Two lanes
Every book takes both assets. The lane changes the taker fee, what happens to that fee, and how fast the fill climbs the rewards ladder. It does not change the odds, the shares or the payout.
| Line | WETH lane | $BONS lane |
|---|---|---|
| Taker fee | 1.00% | 0.50% |
| Where the fee goes | Protocol treasury | Burned |
| Creator take | 1.00% of gross spend | 1.00% of gross spend |
| Tier weight | 1x | 2x |
A 1,000 spend, worked both ways
The amount into the book buys shares along the curve, so the average price on a large fill sits above the price shown before it. The ticket on every book page states the shares and the average price before anything is signed.
Season 0
Season 0 is running now. Books run as paper books on the launch rules: the same fee split, the same curve, the same two lanes, the same tier weights.
Every connected wallet is credited with 1,000 $BONS and 1 WETH of paper balance the first time it is seen. Balances are paper and carry no monetary value. Nothing is deposited, nothing is withdrawn, and no transaction is broadcast to place a bet.
A bet is authorised by a signature over an exact message that names the book, the leg, the lane, the spend and a nonce. The signature has to recover to the wallet that claims it, and a nonce cannot be used twice.
What carries over: the leaderboard, the books, and the creators on them. What does not: the paper balances themselves.
Fees
| Fee | Amount | Paid by | Goes to |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taker fee, WETH lane | 1.00% | The taker | Protocol treasury |
| Taker fee, $BONS lane | 0.50% | The taker | Burned |
| Creator fee | 1.00% | The taker | The wallet or handle that opened the book |
| Market launch fee | 0.0005 ETH | The creator | Protocol treasury |
| Gas | Network rate | Whoever sends the transaction | Robinhood Chain validators |
The launch fee of 0.0005 ETH plus gas applies when the on-chain broadcast hook is live. Season 0 opens books at no cost. There is no maker fee and no fee on settlement.
Rewards tiers
Tier is read from rolling 30 day volume. A fill paid in the $BONS lane counts twice toward that total, so the cheaper lane is also the faster one.
| Tier | 30 day volume | Cashback | Fee cut |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bronze | 0 | 3% | no fee cut |
| Silver | 2,500 | 8% | no fee cut |
| Gold | 15,000 | 15% | 5% |
| Platinum | 75,000 | 22% | 10% |
| Diamond | 250,000 | 30% | 15% |
| Polybons | 1,000,000 | 40% | 25% |
Risks
- A prediction share can settle at zero. A losing leg pays nothing.
- Resolution is manual by the operator in Season 0. An operator can be wrong, late, or unavailable.
- A question can be ambiguous. The wording of the post is the wording that settles.
- Prices move on the curve, so a large fill pays a worse average price than the price shown before it.
- The contracts are not deployed. Nothing on this site is audited yet.
- $BONS has no contract address yet. Any address claiming to be $BONS before the announcement is not $BONS.
FAQ
Do I need to post on X to open a book?
No. The site opens books directly. A post is the other way in, and it carries the poster's handle as creator.
Who is the creator if the book is opened here?
The wallet that signed it. Creator fees accrue to that address.
Does the lane change my odds?
No. Same book, same curve, same price, same payout. Only the fee and the tier weight change.
Why is my average price worse than the price on the tile?
The tile is the price of the next infinitesimal share. A fill walks the curve, so the average across the whole fill sits above it.
What happens at close?
The book stops taking fills at the close date. The operator resolves it in Season 0, then winning shares pay out on the paper ledger.
Can I sell before close?
Not in Season 0. Positions are held to resolution.
Is Polybons a Robinhood product?
No. Robinhood Chain is the settlement layer, not the operator.
Disclaimer
Polybons is software for opening and pricing prediction books. It is not financial advice, not a broker, not a custodian and not an exchange. Nothing here is an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy anything.
Season 0 balances are paper and carry no monetary value. They cannot be deposited, withdrawn, redeemed or transferred. Prediction shares can settle at zero.
Availability may be restricted where prediction markets are restricted. It is on the user to know the rules that apply to them. See Terms and Privacy.
Verify it on chain
Read the chain rather than the copy. These are the constants to check any claim against.
When $BONS is issued, the address appears in the nav on every page and on the explorer. Until then there is no $BONS contract to check.